Laughing at the present/Thinking about the future
MIND OVER CHATTER ARCHIVE
The Correct procedure
Last weekend, we may have seen the clearest example yet of how misguided our culture is. Hopefully, it might act as some kind of turning point in the gradual shift from The Lost Plot to a society able at last to find itself.
I refer to the case of Jordon Lyon, a ten year-old boy who drowned in a local lake. He was, at the time, helping his stepsister who had got into difficulties. Why am I telling any of you this - you know the grisly details as well as I do. However - as befits the title and traditions of this column - I want to take a rather different perspective from that of most of the weekend media.
I will start with Kay Burley. Ms Burley anchors the Sky 12-2.oo pm daily slot, called Lunchtime News with Kay Burley. This woman brings nothing to the programme in the way of opinion, journalistic analysis, or indeed anything that adds value beyond expensive hairdressing. The names Walter Cronkite, Ed Murrow and Richard Dimbleby would (I must assume) be unknown to her.
Kay Burley gained an 'exclusive' interview with Jordon's parents, Anthony (stepdad) and Tracy. (I say she did, but in all probability some other drone did the groundwork.) During this major event, she put enquiries of quite stunning insensitivity - not, I hasten to add, by travelling North, but from her podium of power in the Sky studio. This included asking Mrs Ganderton why - with suspicious undertone - she hadn't been with her son at the time, a groundless accusation that reduced the mourning mother to tears. (She had been looking after a neighbour's child). After Mrs Ganderton's collapse had been unsuitably observed in extreme close-up, the haughty Burley said she would "turn to Mr Ganderton while your wife composes herself".
The marvellous 1980s film Network remains the best and most wickedly funny destruction of modern television news coverage. Ms Burley is - down to the last pin-stripe in her chastity-suit - a Scarfe cartoon of the caricature created by Faye Dunaway in that film. Again, I feel sure she has not the slightest awareness of this.
Next, the parents themselves. Near catatonic with shock after attending a traumatic hearing, it was clear that at the best of times these two folks are not the sharpest cards in the pack. Very clear, however, was how an appalling personal disaster had made them painfully aware of exactly how badly our police forces - and their 'ancillary' units - have lost the plot. "S'just not right is it?" the husband kept asking.
But what, exactly, is Just Not Right?
In beginning to answer this desolate question from a man who isn't even the boy's natural father, let's move on to the following day, when an interesting, intelligent report about the tragedy's hearing was rudely interrupted as BBC24's duty anchorman said "I have to stop you there Aswan (or whoever) because we're going over live right now to the Labour conference".
At the Labour conference, the Big News was that Gordon Brown's limo had arrived at the venue. "Yes" began the anchorman, "there's the Prime Minister getting out of the car, followed closely by his wife who is wearing...yes, it's a red dress".
So perhaps the first thing Just Not Right is that a right now live gawp at Mrs Brown's red dress is deemed more important and interesting than a good journalist analysing the sad death of a boy with but a decade of life behind him.
The torrent of Just Not Right that flows from here onwards is busy drowning our civilisation.
Odd as it may seem to some, by far the worst part of this episode is the decision of the Auxiliary Officers involved not to turn up to the inquest. I find it hard to call this anything other than a disgraceful act of unthinking cowardice.
Close behind is DCI Philip Owen's statement to the press. The man who heads up Wigan police's detection division told us that "these officers are not trained to the same extent as police officers.....they wouldn't know how to deal with a situation like this".
How many ways can one interrogate this silly observation? What exactly are these officers trained to do? Are they trained as human beings who witness mortal danger and thus decide to pitch in? Are they required to be able to swim? (Astonishingly, the answer is 'no'). Are DCIs required to have an iota of common sense?
Next up for judgement must be Legacy Man and his chump Charles Clarke, who tried to stem a high tide of crime by quickly hiring lots of people with no calling beyond their desire to be in a uniform.
Finally, we are surely entitled to ask how it is that a ten year-old boy who sees his step-sister in danger knows exactly what do do, but two adults with the word 'police' in their job titles don't.
Patronising as it may seem, I am enormously encouraged by this boy who, in a world full of step this and extended that, knew enough from his various parents to risk his life for another. Also I am warmed by the degree to which those with whom I've discussed this case feel (as I do) that while Jordon's death was tragic, it has not been in vain: one day soon perhaps - in the future world of computelly interaction - police officers will not be able to spout party-line crap without sixty million citizens shouting 'bollocks' in unison. While to some the internet offers the potential for tyranny, I prefer to hope that it will force humbug back down the throats of those who utter it.
To those who ask with boring frequency why my bombardment upon the antipodean gangster Murdoch knows no end, I can only respond by saying that Murdochs produce Burleys. To those who see celebrity obsession as harmless, I ask if they can read this piece and still say that.
As to the officers concerned, I may seem to judge them, but we mustn't. In 2007, it has become a crime to tell the truth: "I was scared. I funked it". Courage to me is doing something of which one is deeply afraid. For all I know, the two auxiliary community officers were ordered by their superiors not to turn up at the inquest. Perhaps one day they will have the courage to fess up to their cowardice. Perhaps even their senior officers might do the same. (23.9.07)
THE ONLY THING BROWN HAS TO FEAR IS HIMSELF
Most of us call things wrongly with disturbing frequency, and I'm no different. Having said consistently that the Prime Minister lacks the self-belief to call a snap election (he has, after all, seen four opinion polls - all assuring him of an easy win - and still not decided) I'm beginning to wonder if even he can genuinely brood and agonise over what looks increasingly like a walkover.
The fact is, I rather fancy Gordon Brown is now being predictably ruthless about the issue. With the Conservatives all over the place - and Cameron facing a conference distracted by his falling popularity and the likelihood of a November election - the PM is very likely to make the announcement straight after what will be aTory bunfight. (But - Brown being Brown - another poll study next week showing a resurgent Boy David would send the New Labour leader back up to his office for more nailbiting inaction).
Having thought Brown would never get the job (and probably mess it up if he did) you may wonder why my overall judgement of him hasn't changed - given that he is now Prime Minister, and has made what most observers see as an excellent start. So perhaps I should explain why, if anything, his actions since coming to power have only firmed up my judgement of the man. As always, the approach remains ' ignore what he says, observe what he does'.
First up, it's important to note that the PM hasn't actually made a very good start at all - it's just that people are gullible and his spinners (whatever he says) are still hard at it. His approach to the flooding was to say nothing until the waters had receded, and then make a fleeting visit to Sheffield. The money he set aside to help the disaster was both hopelessly inadequate and (as usual) not all new money at all. His next gambit was to get up to his old 'run up flagpole and leak' nonsense on the subject of Iraq, as a result of which the US administration got completely confused - and fairly aggressive. Thus speeches had to be hastily withdrawn, and Gordon was forced to give grovelling reassurances. Having done that (natch) he started pulling troops out of Iraq like the place had cholera or something - as well as insisting that it wasn't happening.
The foot and mouth and blue tongue outbreaks were serendipitous- there's not much anyone can do about that stuff, apart from ignore jittery scientists and maintain a cool head. Brown has distanced himself from these affairs - rather like he did over Iraq. As for the attempted bombings - well, he made lots of sympathetic noises (what else was he going to do?) and then - having talked prior to his Coronation about increasing personal liberties - offered the police and security services a further raft of new powers. He followed this by cuddling up to Fraulein Merkel, and agreeing to help her force through the most undemocratic, controlling and utterly unnecessary constitution in European history. (See Life in the Wrong Lane)
Equally, the Northern Rock fiasco can't really be put down to him. As Chancellor, Gordon Brown was gung-ho about sub-prime lending and Bank of England deregulation, but it's not his fault that most bankers are, by and large, myopic crooks. His 'handling' of the crisis was nevertheless classic Gordy: he panicked. The allegedly independent BoE was suddenly told to toe the line (and then blamed for the disaster) and the ineptly grey Alistair Darling abruptly ordered to guarantee every last penny of savers' cash - while releasing more cheap liquidity. (Which, as it wasn't necessary, went almost entirely unused). Thus, with one mighty bound, the PM has made his Government a hostage to the next misfortune that befalls a bank with greedy lending policies and zero foresight. He has also, in my view, once again put off the inevitable day when world stock markets have to face up to the fact that their Jumbo has run out of engines - and sent entirely the wrong message to go-for-it bourse traders.
Along the way there's been a miscellany of stupidity and skullduggery: the silencing of all debate at the Party Conference, appointing the Mortgage Signer to run the Olympic budget (or 'the Titanic budget' as backbench wags have taken to calling it) and predictable drivel from the robotic Health minister (at Brown's insistence) that the 'people's juries' mean there will be no more 'top down' enforcement of NHS policies....and, er, um, maybe we will have an EU constitutional referendum after all. Hmm.
If this is a good start, then I'm a wheelbarrow. It is, however, an entirely predictable melange of opportunism, flim-flam, dithering, control-freakery and spin. But nor should all of it be seen as pure incompetence: a great deal of this contradictory, directionless hotch-potch is designed to ensure the Scotsman gets some kind of mandate. Keeping Northern Rock customers sweet, propping up a Bearish stock market, 'populist' health policy promises, obfuscation of policy on Iraq - these genuinely crucial issues must all be fudged until such time as our Greatest Ever Chancellor's ample bottom is sitting safely on a Parliamentary majority of at least 100+.
Once that's in the bag, we can kiss any idea of an EU referendum goodbye. And the arrogant and rather odd man we had come to know and distrust will re-emerge from the cloud-cuckoo cover he's been gliding above in recent months. Over time - perhaps quite quickly - it will become clear that the Prime Minister doesn't know how to land.
A growing number of my friends disapprove of this column's 'vendetta' against Gordon Brown. Time will tell, but I offer this in my defence: it's not as if the stuff I write lacks observation or research. The damning piece nby wrote in late 2006 was, for example, the first one to circulate his one-eyed status broadly. (When it suited his Humanity Drive, of course, GB used this disability to the full). But many other commentators (notably James Naughtie) have used information in the public domain - and reliable sources - to demonstrate that when it comes to The One-Eyed Trouser Snake, what you see is precisely what you don't get. He is not a nice man, nor is he honourable, firm in his resolve, or naturally democratic. The folks taken in by a few months of soft soap are the same naive space cadets shocked by the revelation that almost everything on television is faked.
Is it fair play to call him The One-Eyed Trouser Snake? Of course it is: the man has a history of underhand briefing, destroying rivals, unwillingness to listen, cuttting people as bright as him out of the loop - and, yes, a brooding, depressive personality that renders him likely to lurch between frozen inactivity and panic.
Will he go for a November poll? On balance, I'd say the opinion polls, the parlous state of Conservative strategy (and the superficial nature of its leadership, excepting William Hague) now make it a near-certainty. But as ever, those who are calculating can also become victims of analysis paralysis. With Gordon Brown running things, anything - or nothing - might well happen. (1.10.07)
we are all too clever by half
It is very easy - too easy - to aim a barrage of derisive criticism at Gordon Brown, following the public demonstration of what has been a lifelong problem for this arrogant, anal man. Fair enough, the Prime Minister showed yet again that he overestimates the complexity of every problem, and underestimates the cunning of those who oppose him. He suffers (to borrow a phrase of which one of my more astute friends is fond) from the bane of the bright.
He is - as aides, observers and those who set up Anyone but Gordon have known for many years - too clever by half.
I carry no torch at all for Brown. I have always said that, like most flawed men with inner fears, he is so used to the devious approach, he uses it when being straight would be better for all concerned. But it is hypocritical in the extreme for soi-disant political commentators to lambast this insecure Scot for doing no more than playing a game, the rules of which he did not invent. There would be no need for spin doctors were it not for a pack of hyperactive lobby correspondents and power-drunk editors gagging to interpret every last inflection, twitch and jowel-wobble of senior politicians. There would be no need for 'calculations' were it not for pollsters earning money and fame from interrogating each tiny issue, debate and speech - after which, quite often, their own incompetence is revealed in hopelessly misread election forecasts.
This obsession of media and market research anoraks with things of little or no interest to voters is in stark contrast to what most electors cared about last Saturday: the astonishing victory of England's rugby team over Australia, and the even more amazing French ejection of New Zealand. The observation reflects my view that political commentary has once again been reduced to the sort of rough-and-tumble that plays well in large stadia, but very badly when applied to people who purport to lead the country, spend our money and desire respect.
Equally, it really is time that politicians began to come through the ranks armed with a healthy disrespect for the sounde-bite fishermen - as opposed to an unhealthy disrespect for the voter. This assertion should not be misinterpreted as a cry for political arrogance: we have more than enough of that as it is. It's simply that our leaders should be prepared genuinely to ignore blip by blip speculation, and insist that their real policies be analysed in depth, and after due consideration - not have their daily motives endlessly speculated upon.
Underlying this blow-by-blow approach to politics is the assumption these days (since the introduction of 'focus' groups into the mix) that the electorate's opinions on each and every decision and action are both valuable and relevant. After thirty years as a specialist communications researcher and market planner, I can tell you unequivocally that (usually) they aren't. In fact, I would go further and say that listening to the views of often mediocre minds has been a major factor in producing the slapstick politics we see day in day out. Cameron vowed to stop all this: now he is its most irritating exponent. He too is obsessed with undiscerning inclusivity.
Yet at the same time, all this 'listening' and 'bottom up' stuff is a crude sham: one only has to look at the policies brought in and suggested by Conservative and New Labour governments over the last twenty years to see how little notice they took of (or knew about) the genuine needs of real people. From silly Charters onwards, we have been subjected to deckchair rearrangement on a grand scale in the NHS, HIPs that get nowhere near the concerns of people buying and selling houses and (right now) an EU Constitution that nobody needs.
This is packaging freaks being too clever by half.
At times, such elitist ignorance can have disastrous consequences. A great deal of 'liberal' legislation in recent years, for example, has been based on the assumption that bored and not very bright people short of stimuli will be able to resist casinos and handle booze with the same success as career-driven University educated and/or middle class professionals. Elitist as this may itself sound, look at the demography of those buying Lottery tickets. For all her other financial idiocies, you may rest assured that Tessa Jowell doesn't buy them.
This is privileged and mega-intelligent lawmakers being too clever by half.
The process of developing libertarian democratic policy has become muddled, and the terms 'inclusive' and 'representative' so inaccurately used as to be almost pointless as ways of rationalising manifesto promises. The underlying principle of our Parliamentary system has been, for nearly a century, that virtually universal suffrage should decide the direction of national government every five years. The equal universality of hitech media and public research has corrupted this idea, and - since about 1975 - begun to introduce the concept of instant 'yes or no' politics. Interactive technology could very quickly turn this into a nightmare similar to that in which the number of thumbs turned downwards decided the fate of gladiators in the Colisseum two thousand years ago.
In short, the real need is for politicians to do that hardest of things - ignore microphones, TV exposure, and photo-opportunities. This may prove an impossible task for the existing Establishment. As regular readers of nby will know by now, the editorial view here is that only a more genuinely broad Party democracy (driven initially by proportional representation) will allow entry to reformers with less to lose - and thus more motivation to bring considered sanity back to the British system.
Too clever by half has messed up badly: what we need is more politicians who reallyknow how the other half live. For truly intelligent, grounded people to carefully interpret what the other half is saying. If we cannot gain release from the bread-and-circuses-soap-opera-X Factor emotionalism of contemporary politics, then poor thinking and increasingly mob-focussed policies will triumph.
The signs are not that good. BBC News24 last Saturday agonised over the ins and outs of the Prime Minister's 'decision', and then - oh so predictably - cut up a good, analytical interview to go back to Downing Street and show......Gordon getting into a car. Earlier, Andrew Marr had been allowed into the Gordonial presence, and told by the Prime Minister that he would not be calling an election because he had "a vision for change" more important than electoral advantage. I doubt if a single viewer believed him. Cameron eagerly came to the microphone and told some Caledonian keeny that everyone would now vote Conservative. The following days' newspapers said Brown had 'bottled it' (pure Eastenders) been caught with his trousers down - plus a suitable illustration for illiterates (Murdoch's Times), and made the decision entirely 'because of our Poll' (The News of the World). Twenty years on from 'It was the Sun wot dun it', things are getting worse, and the knuckle-draggers more inordinately proud of their influence upon how the future is to be shaped.
If the clever folks don't get their act together, I fear, we may wind up being run by those who are too stupid by half. (8.10.07)
DO VOTERS REALLY SHARE THE OBSESSION WITH 'LEADER' PACKAGING?
Market Research is a rum old business. I conducted and used it for over thirty-five years, and my only definitive views on practitioners are (1) their job consists entirely of spotting respondent fibs and (2) most of them are no good at such discernment.
With our increasingly 'presidential' approach to Party leadership, the 'leadership qualities' rating has come to the fore in research questionnaires. Not only is the electorate almost always wrong about this (which is important) they are also hugely prone to respond in direct correlation to the last thing some important Nob said. This is a polite way of saying they are sometimes gullible - and have better short than long-term memories when put on the spot by a stranger interviewing them.
The assumption made on that basis - by both the political and research communities - is that voters remember very little (I mean - they're stupid, right?) and thus emotional 'Spin' about political leaders can survive almost anything 'in the long term'. The false extrapolation here (on top of the elite's 'they're stupid' belief) is that there is much of a correlation between perceived leadership qualities and voting in national elections.
I've had a few nagging doubts about this for a while, but a new study by Crosby/Textor/Pepper adds some flesh for us all to worry at. (For those who don't already know, Crosby is an Aussie spin-cum-strategy guru hired by the Conservative Party at the last election).
I'm not that interested in all the 'twelve marginals' stuff, as anyone in market research who hasn't yet learned to use our ludicrous Parliamentary voting system in this manner shouldn't be in the business in the first place. Rather more to the point is that this study not only gave the local candidate's name and Party for the voting intention questions, it also produced data on Party leaders' perceived trustworthiness alongside specific 'skills' as demonstrated in their past statements and behaviour.
CTP made much (in the Daily Telegraph) of how Brown's decision to back off from an election was 'a blunder'. This view they base partly on the fact that the Prime Minister knocked Cameron for six on the dimension of who 'would make the better Prime Minister' - and would thus have lost only one seat in among the twelve marginals - nowhere near enough to threaten New Labour's Commons majority.
I believe this interpretation is flawed. Saying after the event what would have happened is a silly area for market researchers to be in. By this token, for instance, the UK 'would' have elected Harold Wilson in 1970 and Neil Kinnock in 1993. The fact that we did neither was down to the perceived trustworthiness (and humanity) displayed by Heath and Major respectively as the campaigns developed.
There is also an extent to which CTP contradict themselves, in that on the one hand they say Brown's perceived Prime Ministerial competence would have carried him home easily, but on the other that a united Party with original policies is more important. The point of this piece is not, by the way, to give the Antipodean Crosby a thick ear (although that would be nice) but rather to express the view that this second extrapolation is by far the more convincing one.
The data are compelling: Cameron's great 'Fight Back' was trumpeted by the media (especially his partly off-the-cuff speech) as a turning point in his fortunes. In fact, his own personal standing rose hardly at all. What did rise 13 points was the Tory score on 'strong and united' - and after the Conference, a majority of voters in the marginals thought Britain was 'moving in the wrong direction'.
An M Sc in psychology is not required in order to understand why this was: both William Hague and David Davies outlined with lucidity and brevity precisely what is daft about the New Labour project - and, to be fair, so did Cameron. Further, these three and Oliver Letwin were key elements in the 'alright then fat boy, let's see what you're made of' approach: they were Four Musketeers, all for one and one for all.
Another thing I suspect CTP may have nailed is the reality that all Party leader posturing and theatrics are hostages to fortune. Put another way, protestations of goodness can do very little for one's positive image (see earlier) but they can easily backfire. A further ICM poll at the weekend showed that Brown's 'no spin' was seen by 61% of voters as empty, and his government thus as 'willing to use as much spin as Tony Blair's'.
Looking back over sixty or more years, we can see much support for this hypothesis. Churchill tried scare tactics and his wartime record to see off Labour in 1945. Wilson tried to depict Heath as 'yesterday's man' in 1970. Kinnock first of all tried to depict Thatcher as evil (1989) and then became puffed up and triumphalist against Major (1993). Major in turn then tried to demonise Blair in 1997. They all lost: personality politics is a double-edged sword.
There are lessons here for everyone, especially market researchers and Party grandees: smart people, floating voters and those who know they're voting in a marginal will always fall back on real behaviour when judging if somebody can be trusted. In valuing honesty, they also value loyalty. And no amount of spin about a policy's 'success' will convince them if their experience on the ground doesn't back up the ever-mendacious statistics.
Oddly enough, I think somewhere inside his uncertain and multifaceted neurosis, the Prime Minister knows the essential truth within that conclusion. This column said three weeks ago he 'had only himself to fear' - and indeed, had he said within a week of the first snap-election briefings "Let's go", he would've walked it. But being 'himself', he schemed, he analysed, he hesitated - and missed his chance.
I disagree with CTP: had Brown given the Green light the weekend after the Conservative rally at Blackpool, he would've seen his broken promise of a spin-free world punished, his majority at least halved, and his authority damaged beyond repair. He was, in a nutshell, the wise coward on this occasion. But Crosby's other insight - that good policies and a bright, practical team are ultimately the best support for a Party leader - is right on the money.
Personality (ie,Presidential) politics have a far better record of success in the United States. But in the end, their system is entirely different to ours. Presidents can't sit in Congress - they sit alone in the Oval Office. They can take much underserved credit - and dish out great bowl-fulls of blame when opposed by the two Houses on Capitol Hill. On many issues, they can appear to wind up way above party wrangling. They are the nearest thing the US has to a Monarch, or overall cultural leader. And basically, at key moments they can blink (or not) on issues and crises where - quite genuinely - the fate of the planet is in their hands.
In the UK, the stage is smaller and the actors more equal. There is Cabinet Responsibility. Our self-image is far more critical than that of the average American. Even today, we are far less gullible about the ability of anything (let alone one man) to solve our very obviously deep problems. But most important of all, we have never bought into the American obsession with winners. It's not that we want losers - but we do prefer good losers at worst, and underdogs at best. And for some reason, small teams - Four Musketeers or Battle of Britain pilots - triumphing against the odds are very much our Thing. For me, this is an excellent starting point from which Cameron's team can now cut the antics and get across the policies.
As for Australians in the context of team triumphs, I have only this to say in conclusion: "England 12 Australia 10". (15.10.07)
without discretion there can be no liberty
My Dad always used to say that "Do you want to know a secret?" was internally illogical as a question. If someone tells someone else a secret, then it's no longer a secret. He was right about that: the only true secrets are the personal ones we take to our grave.
Ever since Profumo in the UK, and Nixon's infamous tapes in America, the only unknowns left today are genuine State secrets: I'm not sure there are that many qualifying as 'genuine' anyway - and even these often pop up in memoirs later, despite MI5 employees having signed the Official Secrets Act previously. The excuse - public interest - is fair enough; but if you're worried about public interest, don't join the security services.
In our contemporary culture, once a secret so much as pokes an ankle out of the closet, it is doomed to wind up entirely naked in the public domain. While I'm the first to support full disclosure of wrongdoing, I'm old-fashioned enough to think that some things are better off remaining private - no matter how interested the public is.
The key word here is discretion. Discretion is part and parcel of morality, loyalty, ethics, self-control and respect for others. A cover-up is a cover-up if self-seeking mendacity, incompetence, criminal activity or corruption are involved. If not, it's discretion. Without discretion, cultural standards (and even our civilisation as a whole) will always be in danger.
Self-obsession ensures that most celebrities these days are indiscreet about everything, especially themselves: their struggles, their shame, their demons, their parents, their sexuality. They do this to keep the cameras on them once their shallow talent has been mined, and to fill up the bank account that is consequently emptying.
The media have lost the meaning of discretion - except when their own kind are involved, at which point they bleat for privacy. The low-life celeb-mag sector goes not only behind the doors of the famous, but also into their underwear. It is quite unspeakably, cruelly indiscreet. These ghouls are not selling honesty: they're selling vengeful, twisted envy.
The tabloids remain as tediously repetitive as ever. Thirty years ago, some Sun headlines were funny - largely because Kelvin Mackenzie can be very amusing indeed, when he isn't busy peddling his knuckle-dragger philosophy. For over a decade now, all the red-tops have failed utterly to change anything except the facts, or invent anything except stories: pervs, love-rats, kid-killers, sex-beasts and whistle-blowers remain unchanged - while the hacks involved are still yelling through celebrity letter-boxes in the hope of terrifying their victims into admitting horror, pain and all the rest of it.
None of this is in the public interest. Rather, it is out among an interested public - fascinated, in fact (to the point of obsessive compulsion) with celebrity frailty. It enriches nothing in our culture except the gargoyle personalities who own our media: men (and it's mainly men) who change their nationalities for gain and censor to placate fascists in one breath - yet demand full disclosure for everyone else in the next. Who award their wives loudhailer newspaper columns and a thousand frocks, then cry anti-semitism when she is criticised, then claim they've been framed after being found guilty of audacious embezzlement on a mind-boggling scale. Who bully employees, bad-debt suppliers, spike real cover-up revelations and steal pension funds - then fall off their gigantic, vulgar yachts, having reached a level of obesity almost unparalleled among even the fattest cats.
Why does any of this matter? Because the freedom to reveal comes with the responsibility to accept a morally higher need to remain silent. Keeping a promise will (naturally) create ethical dilemmas: I have sworn an allegiance, but the Fuhrer seems to be engaged in gratuitous genocide. However, but one golden rule should be applied here, one key question asked: did I sign up for this? If the answer is 'no', then breaking the oath is no crime at all. But if the answer is 'yes', then one's lips must remain sealed.
Very simply, if people cannot 'obey their oaths', then indiscretion (which is more often license than liberty) will eventually kill freedom. Because the controlling types at the top - if they see nobody can be trusted to keep their word - will take the right to utter that word off them. News media will be censored, maverick security agents quietly dispatched to shallow graves, and every press release monitored by pinched goblins. Orwell's Ministry of Truth will have arrived - to stay. And the open society will be at an end.
This week, we have another royal 'scandal'. Along with other commentators, I too will be intrigued by this 'secret' until it dribbles out - as it inevitably will. But the only way it can now do so is via the relatives and friends of the blackmailers, or via the police. And these days, the police are as leaky as everyone else. Even if nobody wants to talk, money talks - and very persuasively.
When policemen are no longer discreet, then all trust in institutional morality is put in question - and the anal rulers referred to above will feel vindicated in their paranoid decision to trust none of us.
There are many, many occasions when everyone - famous or otherwise - is entitled to freedom from their private lives, business decisions and personal peccadillos being made public. Martin Jol - the newly-fired Spurs manager - was entitled to expect discretion from the club's Chairman regarding his dismissal. It wasn't forthcoming. The Liberal Democrat MP Simon Hughes was entitled to keep his sexual orientation private. Under prurient pressure, he felt it necessary to lie about being bisexual. It cost him a leadership contest he should have won easily, and did considerable damage to his Party.
Further Royal revelations about the current episode will not be in anyone's interests. We are not talking about a morally corrupt or decadent family here, whatever Murdoch's republicans would have us believe. Some inhibited bloke rogering a compliant footman (maybe) while snorting coke is not news any more: it's life. A minor Royal is (perhaps) harming him or herself. A Royal courtier (probably) constructed the set-up. Now two people have been charged with blackmail. They are (almost cedrtainly) guilty, as they appear to have been trapped by undercover coppers. None of us are going to benefit from knowing any more than this. What we know already is more than enough to worry about. (29.10.07)
NEW LABOUR LITE:
HIGH IN IQ AND ARROGANCE,
LOW IN WISDOM AND CREATIVITY
One's intelligence quotient comes largely from genetic background, although it can be augmented by the right environment and experiences - depending on one's definition of IQ.
There are many who believe IQ as a concept is anything from worthless to hugely overrated as a means of judging or predicting capability. I'm not on this spectrum, but quite close to it in that I'd dub it an inexact blunt instrument' - somewhere off the right hand end.
In many cases, IQ is little or no guide to a person's job suitability. Some years back, a rather snotty Cambridge graduate we'd employed in our ad agency presented to a major client - as in, the biggest client we had by some distance. Irked that this marketing director had not at first grasped her insight about his brand, the lady concerned said with lead-heavy irony, "Didn't understand that? OK, I'll say it again more slowly."
The following day, the client Chairman rang me to request that we never show him this person again. I was bound to agree with him, but when I brought the matter up with my employee, she informed me with cool sarcasm that both our agency and its clients were too thick to appreciate her genius. So before she could do any more damage, I fired her. I heard some five years later that this person had dropped out of advertising. She was now working for a Government think-tank.
In short, her naivety, arrogance and lack of antennae made her totally unsuitable for any job in a a service industry. But at the same time, I was somehow unsurprised that she was to be found advising Westminster. Today, some twenty years later, I would regard it as no more than a confirmation of my long-held view: that those both influencing and in charge of socio-economic policy are extremely bright, very certain, but utterly lacking in wisdom or relevant ideas.
With wisdom comes humility, the desire to learn more, and the challenge of creative risk. If you've spent much of life being told you have a brain the size of the planet, the chances are you already think you know more than anyone else - and perhaps everything. By this stage of delusion, the point of being clever is not to solve problems, but rather to keep on showing how clever you are. Thus, those trying to interpret Brownesque cleverness in the Treasury tore their hair out for the best part of a decade. The same was true of those working for Hewitt, Kelly, Miliband - and especially the unfortunate Ministers receiving the benefit of the Prime Minister's 'initiatives' - during the long, directionless years of Blairite spin.
Without humility, even the daftest idea and the most thinly veiled subterfuge gains a hearing, becomes policy and passes into the Statute Book. A culture with gambling and binge drinking problems is offered more access to both as a solution. An already over-complex housing process is complicated still further (and its key problems unaddressed) by a law requiring more public servants, more legal fees and and a new cost for vendors. It is defended with the assertion that it will save everyone time and money. Brown declares that we are not withdrawing from Iraq, and then takes 30% of the troops out. David Miliband declares the Lisbon Treaty 'completely different' to the previously rejected Constitution, even though its EU supporters openly admit the new document is 98% the same as its predecessor. 84% of the population (including the black head of the Race Relations Commission) declares itself against uncontrolled immigration; the Government does nothing except prepare for the invasion, having already been 93% adrift in its estimate of those likely to settle here. Chickens roosting in full prisons as a result of misguided social policy are simply set free. Financial turkeys are handed the Olympic budget for safe keeping.
As a nation, we need - very urgently - to rethink not only what we need in (and from) our politicians, but also from where we obtain them, and why. In the 1930s, an interesting Freudian called Harold Lasswell wrote the controversial academic bestseller The Psychology of Politics. Although his proposal - that all politicians should be screened for signs of dangerous neurosis - looks naive from the perspective of 2007, Lasswell's laudable concern was to avoid megalomaniacs like Stalin and Hitler. There is certainly a contemporary case for at least limiting the number of graduates, Oxbridgers, public schoolboys, lawyers and 'career' politicians; and demanding a quota for those who have had a commercial job.
This is not, by the way, the thought of an embittered 'I was brought up in the school of hard knocks' drongo. My degree was in history and politics, and most people I knew in my thirties were convinced I'd make more than a few million and then enter politics. They were wrong on both counts, in the second case because by then I'd met enough politicians to know they were either very dull or obviously deranged.
My suggestions are as follows:
1. Politicians' salaries should be means-tested. 2. At least two-thirds of all female Cabinet members should have children. 3. All Cabinet members, Whips and Shadow Cabinet members must live in their own homes unassisted by cheap mortgages or nannies, travel on public transport in London, go Standard Class Inter-City, use only the NHS and not be allowed to put aged relatives in private nursing homes.* (The nutshell of this is 'all politicos should experience the effects of their policies'). 4. Quotas for Ministers as shown above. 5. Every serving Minister must be able to say what he or she has learned from failure at some point in their lives.
The last point seems to me the most important of all. Success may go to our heads, but failure goes into the left cortex as a lesson. It sows a seed of humility, and this (going back to where I started) leads to a willingness to learn and improve. We mainly learn from mistakes: which is why those who think themselves superior bordering on perfect rarely learn anything.
Politicians who seek only to excuse, spin or hide their errors of judgement should read Aleksander Solzhenytsin's novella We never make mistakes. Written in 1970, it remains a prescient analysis of why the Soviet Union was doomed to failure: quite simply, it never changed for the better.
___________________________________________________________________________________
*For what it's worth, the much loved and loathed Mayor Livingstone does this whenever possible
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Do markets really decide?
It's a tricky question, but on balance it takes about two seconds to formulate a reply along the lines of 'no'.
There are two reasons for this. First, inanimate things don't decide anything, because they don't have a brain. Sometimes consumers decide, and sometimes other folks do. Second - and closely related to these 'other folks' - while markets being allowed to 'decide' sounds very brave and take-it-like-a-man, it's amazing how the main beneficiaries of market fluctuation run for cover when the decision is less clearly in their favour.
We may all be back in caves and trees by this time next year, but those responsible will still be offering loans to Mr & Mrs Wayne Ug from the safety of large ocean-going yachts. For as we have seen on four separate occasions so far in the credit fudge, the only ones still standing when the fudge hits the fan are the taxpayers.
This is not Friedmanite economics as I understand it, but setting this reality to one side for a moment, there are three schools of thought about where the West is heading commercially and financially as 2007 draws to a close. One says pear-shaped any day now, another says if we hold our nerve everything will be dandy, and a Third Way says it'll be one of those two. Regular fans of nby will know that I'm firmly in the tits-up camp (mind you, I have been since 2005,so what do I know?) and my instinct tells me that the longer you lie on a volcano, the bigger the bang when you get off. Bit like Heather Mills-McCartney, really.
Three stories last weekend did strike me as especially pertinent, however. The first was by the Sunday Times' financial guru David Smith, who devoted a whole page (itself flagged on the front page) to 'Credit Crunch: how worried should you be?' He spent 3000 words saying maybe you should be, and maybe you shouldn't - it was hard to tell. It was a remarkable piece of fence-sitting, in which one paragraph about a total collapse of the banking system was followed by another imagining a slow climb back to the sunny uplands of eternal growth. A lot of journalism is like this, and always has been. But this chap is supposed to be a leading expert. I smiled in admiration as I got to the end of the article.
The second was in the Mail on Sunday, and discussed the way in which three or four hedge fund masterminds have spent the last few months using speculation to manipulate the price of oil upwards by roughly 40%. That's an awfully large increase, and an awfully huge amount of profit for no more than a dozen or so carpet-baggers. In fact (as several experts confirmed in both the FT and the Sunday Times) there is no shortage at all of oil; thus, you and I are paying over a quid a litre for petrol at the pumps so a few troughers can demonstrate their remarkable skills.
Call my sense of humour darkly macabre if you like, but these days I laugh out loud on reading this sort of stuff. The Mail's censorious account of monstrous racketeering really did have me giggling by the third column of the piece. The amusement for me came (as usual) from thinking of parallels. Alex Salmond poisoning Japanese whisky output to treble the price of Scotch. Jonathan Porritt radiating the Middle East and Texas in order to double the interest in clean transport. Or Diageo putting crack cocaine in alcopops - and then increasing the price tenfold, explaining that this was a socially responsible attempt to curb binge drinking.
The third was in Saturday's Telegraph, and noted (two months after nby did) that all New Labour has done with education is make the aspirant lower-middle classes pay (at least partly) for City College or fully private schooling - having forty years ago abolished grammar schools that provided exactly the same (probably better) quality free to everyone regardless of social background and solely upon ability.
However, the Telegraph went a headline hilariously too far with its 'parents flock to private sector' angle. The figures simply didn't stack up: a 1% rise in market share for private education is hardly a stampede to get little Dean into Rugby. One sentence noted with obvious desperation that 'in some wealthy areas, whereas two years ago 37% of children were privately educated, the figure is now 41%'. Stop the presses Scoop,we need a special here.
What in the name of tediously scrolling down this screen, you're wondering, has all this to do with anything?
Simply this: a journalist paid a whopping salary for his wise opinion offers everything up to but not including the opinion part of the deal, in an article about how free marketeers want the market to decide, and then the taxpayer to cough up when the market makes a decision not in their business model. A dozen fat slobs cause over thirty million citizens to pay over the odds, in order to manipulate a market whose decision to pump out more oil was also not to their liking. And a government repeats, over and over again for a decade, that they have cut taxes when all they've done is change taxes and double them - while a right-wing newspaper blatantly misleads readers into thinking that millions more Britons are having to starve in order to send their kids to public school. The market, it said, was deciding - when it quite clearly wasn't doing anything of the kind.
It kind of puts into perspective what a long, hard, uphill slog it's going to be restoring our civilisation to at least some semblance of the ethics that once made it unique.
The solution to this laughably obvious collapse in commercial and governmental morality is not the abolition of capitalism and democracy, but the reform of capitalism, and the restoration of a civic sense felt by the vast majority to be infinitely more important than money. The catalysts to get things rolling will be the bursting of cheap borrowing's South Sea Bubble, and the democratisation of Britain's electoral system.
Mervyn King is right, and Gordon Brown is wrong. Only a large dose of reality can teach grinning gluttons that at the end of their muddy little track lies the cliff edge. Getting working people to bale out incautious idiots will never achieve anything beyond encouraging them to do it again. (13.11.07)
Let us now blame junior men
Early in my career, a senior adman said to me "Any system is only as good as the people working it". His use of the verb was intentional, in that 'working the system' in the 1970s meant screwing it.
Following Mrs Thatcher's new broom, it was hoped by many that the Jobsworth-cum-idle types working the system would become extinct - threatened as they'd be by market pressures. It is one of the myths surrounding Baroness Thatcher that she cut the percentage of the workforce engaged in the public sector. Far from it: the Civil Service in particular was bigger when she left office than when she arrived in Number Ten.
In 2007, 'systems' to guide jobsworths have developed to a stage where they appear to be designed for folks who've had a frontal lobotomy. During PMQs last Wednesday, David Cameron described Darling's missing twenty five million ID details as 'a systemic failure'. He is wrong about this on almost any basis of relevance to the case.
First and foremost, it was a Human Resources failure. Some minor apparatchik who knew the rules perfectly well thought 'sod it', and sent a massive amount of sensitive information through the post without so much as registering it, let alone using Special D. Why on earth was such a drongo employed in the first place? Although the Union involved would have us believe that overwork caused an oversight, this is palpable bunk: that's like saying that an 'overworked' surgeon left a vitally needed human heart on a slab rather than immediately placing it in a sterile deep-freeze ambulance container.
Second (and more broadly) this represents a cultural failure. I refer not just to the 'let's stick a notice up and that'll solve it' tendency, but also the apparent desire of so many people today to assume that every rule is somebody else's responsibility - or doesn't apply to them. Across the full range of government - from armed forces procedure through to regulations for the maintenance of water-supply infrastructure - direction is blithely ignored. Last week, I waited four hours (after making three strong complaints) before an anti-infection gel dispenser was refilled at the main entrance of Weymouth hospital.
A complete re-engineering of citizen attitudes would be required to change this. After each flagrant example of poor behaviour in such instances - and subsequent disasters - we are always treated to junior ministers and senior officials saying "Well, I think the important thing is that we can learn the lessons of this appalling situation". The problem is, we don't seem to learn any more.
Third, there was a failure of Civil Service attitude. Ho-hum, we seem to have lost the population's personal details. Ah well, they'll turn up - in the meantime, let's send them again. When - thirty days later - they hadn't surfaced, the Chancellor was forced to make a humiliating statement to Parliament.
It is a terrifyingly ironic situation we find ourselves in. Civil servants are quite happy to let things drift because they have gold-plated pensions and will never face either re-election or the chop. And senior politicians used to the aphrodisiac of power will do anything which presses balm onto the electorate (whether this be effective or not) so they can have yet more years of riding about in a world hermetically sealed from day to day reality.
Fourth, there has been a failure of policy. As any sane human being of maturity could tell you, there is no such thing as 'twenty-five million secrets'. Keeping that number of details secret is the goal of those not grounded in reality - whom nby calls the Wuts*. Exactly the same flaw (along with the obvious possibility of absolute State power) is apparent in the whole idea of an ID system. Access will be restricted, but lazy and/or greedy individuals will find ways round that. If the regular arrival of state secrets in Moscow from 1942 until 1982 doesn't make this clear to deluded control-freaks, then nothing will.
Finally, there has been a failure caused by Prime Ministerial tramline vision, and his inability to accept that any strategy he follows might - just possibly - be wrong. Gordon Brown's much-vaunted 'apology' was a narrow affair indeed: he apologised for the 'inconvenience' caused to Benefit recipients. No remorse was shown in relation to exposing a majority of the electorate to rampant fraud. Disgracefully, he went on to suggest that with a 'Tory' level of Revenue staff cuts, the situation might have been worse. How exactly? Does his logic suggest that the fewer the hands at the wheel, the more private information will be dished out?
Predictably, the Prime Minister announced a review. So look, he seemed to say when challenged by the Opposition Leader: I've apologised, I've blamed somebody, and there'll be an enquiry - what is your problem squire? But a review is merely another system, another procedure, another House of Lords crony to be leaned upon in the event of his or her finding anything embarrassing - or criminal. (To be specific, my Junior Treasury source has already questioned Brown's definition of 'junior' in relation to the Civil Servant involved. This is presumably like the Palace's definition of a 'distant' relative of the Queen in the blackmail affair of three weeks ago.)
I think there are two issues at stake here, and both are far more important than any one event.
The first is that Brown's spin-free, open, libertarian, competent and 'strong' difference in style is well and truly dead and buried. Those commentators who argue this is 'the end of the honeymoon' are mistaking small tiff for multiple adultery. Only a series of spectacular own-goals from the Opposition can save this Government from henceforth being a paraplegic duck.
Secondly - and this is simply the nature of cyclical politics under our system of constant media-glare - the Administration that has taken over from Blair's is behaving more and more like that of Major after 1992: the way seems so littered with tired ideas, banana skins, underservedly saved skins, sleaze, and indifference, there is no room for any real progress to be made.
The real problem for the Nation is that atop this heap of mediocrity sits a man who shares the same blind obstinacy as Margaret Thatcher - but none of her will, decisiveness or conviction. (20.11.07)
____________________________________
This may not be the end of Brown, but it is the start of something better
Perhaps the most oft-quoted example of positivity without undue optimism is the Commons statement by Churchill in 1942: the old toper remarked that Rommel's defeat was not the beginning of the end but 'the end of the beginning' of final victory. While Gordon Brown's 'style' of Government is unravelling before our eyes - as he is surely doing behind locked doors - Churchill's measured assessment is a perfect guiding light for all those who want to see an end to this Establishment, and the arrival (at last) of a new ethical dawn.
For all that he is mentally deformed and totally unsuited to either team politics or national leadership, the Prime Minister's personality will thrive on last-redoubt bunker government. There are still (in theory) eighteen months before New Labour must face the music, during which anything from unpredicted national crisis to Conservative own-goals might dramatically snatch Brown from the back molars of electoral slaughter.
I very much doubt it, if only because the main crisis is both widely expected - and more likely to be a final coffin nail than a daring leap to safety. But there will be more protestations of strong leadership, more 'fresh starts', more lies and more stunts before this particular game is finally over. Best to get in a good stock of silver bullets, crucifixes and scandals to ensure the Undead are finally banished to the Other Side.
What I think we can be certain about now is that the confluence of historical catalysts is in place, and a growing current will take all of us (whether willing or not) into the new zeitgeist. But if it's no longer a question of 'if', the matter of 'when' is still very important: this process could take twenty years, or two - from here on, it all depends on us.
Four years ago, the US TV series Desperate Housewives - easily the most seditious programme to come out of America in years - declared open season on surreal examples of political correctness, feminism, corporate life-imbalance, indebtedness, sexual license and anything else it could take a swipe at.
In the intervening years, major American writers and academics have blown their incorrect cover, been subjected to the usual East Coast hail of hate - but found support and survived.
Since the start of 2006, 'spin' has become a four-letter word that people shrink from using in polite company.
After years of central bankers unwisely propping up global 'growth' with low-rate, indiscriminate lending, the likes of Mervyn King have finally started to say 'call time, and call in the debt'.
Leaders of all races, cultures, communities and religions are calling for an end to appeasement, and an acceptance that soft-pedalling on asylum seekers, mass immigration and extremism must stop. During 2007 - especially since Blair's disappearing trick - firemen, policemen, social workers, backbench MPs, Health Workers, pension quangos, prison authorities, radio talk hosts and virtually every other kind of opinion influencer has argued that crazy sentences, drink laws, debt levels and gambling developments are the antithesis of what's required to bring some sanity back to our culture.
This year, three separate corporate bodies have criticised the Government for dragging their feet on carbon output.
Since the middle of September, I've met people actually finding it hard to get a loan. (And in every case, deservedly so).
Three weeks ago, a senior corporate opinion leader delivered a devastating critique of Birtist Management Consultancy syntax as 'gibberish'. Other business speakers have begun to question whether (if utilities greed can't be contained voluntarily) we need obligatory infrastructural investment and price control. Even some of my more Friedmanite chums are asking if laissez faire economics can possibly always be the answer. Several are now joining the chorus questioning the inevitability of Globalism.
A fortnight ago, our abysmal soccer performance against a tiny Balkan nation finally made the FA's Chief Executive wonder if high salaries paid to overgrown children were really the way to introduce excellence into the grass roots of the beautiful game.
Last week, senior American bankers started to admit that the 'toxic' sub-prime crisis is not just a blip. On Wednesday, a remarkable piece by Gillian Tett in the Financial Times gave four frighteningly well-argued reasons why sub-prime must and will spread to the broader economy - and all of our lives.
What we are seeing here is an end to blind optimism, and the revival of empiricism: 'I have seen the present, and it doesn't work'. The next stage will be the emergence of socio-political observers calling for a new approach to how we elect and how we are governed. Simon Jenkins and Rod Liddle are already leading the charge. It is too early yet to tell whether the Conservatives will be mown down by this, or step to one side, or shout 'My Kingdom for a horse'. Whatever they do, the process is unstoppable. (27.11.07)
__________________________________________
The Second Chance
As the years pile on and the seventh decade beckons, I'm beginning to understand just how important it is to give folks a second chance.
There's more to this than love, peace and philanthropy: the second go given to someone who cocked up (or ran amok) the first time around can reveal hitherto undiscovered treasures - and at a heavily discounted price. My final few years in advertising held one or two triumphs of hiring so-called 'old lags' who wanted another crack at life. Great football managers often do the same - most notably Brian Clough.
In one's private life, people who failed us, seemingly 'screwed' us (or were just plain nasty to us) become demons with the distance offered by time. Yet it is extraordinary how - on occasionally meeting examples again twenty years on - I now realise I must have been equally at fault, if only because they're obviously very decent people with all the same problems of health and finance that come to us all.
With most reasonably balanced individuals, maturity brings a degree of calm and rather more wisdom to soothe the aches and pains. Sadly, our contemporary media do not allow this reality to brighten up the dark colour of their hasty judgement: once a love-rat, always a love-rat, and all that.
On a tiny advertising stage twenty-five years ago, I was the gruff Planner, the northerner who didn't suffer fools, the ruthlessly ambitious nasty piece of work in too much of a hurry. There was considerably more than a grain of truth in all that, but once established, the image stuck long after such behaviour had been consigned to the past. In the late 1980s, Michael Bungey saw more than this in me, and offered The Second Chance I badly needed. He and others allowed my last decade in the business to be one of Autumn Gold.
What astonished (and horrified) me on arriving at the then Dorland was how many people greeted my arrival with ridiculously tall stories about what an unmitigated shit I was. Most people were won over in time, but others just needed to believe the Hobgoblin propaganda. Later still (in relation to others in need of a second chance) I noticed how often these very same diehards were the first to condemn and the last to forgive. I met one only three weeks ago; he badmouthed a friend of mine who (also in the early years) had something of a wide-boy reputation. Nothing I said could persuade this chap from his relentless spittle of hatred.
I think the extrapolation from this is simple enough: big people don't like others to fail. On the whole, they enjoy the renaissance of somebody written off. Small people revel in all this, because it ensures there are others with further to fall than them.
I am also bound to observe that, disturbingly often, the judgemental moral pygmies are the very ones on their fifth chance - but still blowing it. For these people, I have developed a life rule from which I rarely waver: give them the second chance, accept it when they don't take it - and try to forgive. But what you shouldn't do is forget. To forgive these folks is divine, but to forget their modus operandi is dumb. For they are the ones who will never change - and should thus be avoided. (10.12.07)
_______________________________________________________________________
Time to take the money out of politics
Hardly has the dust settled on the Jewish Donor Conspiracy than the Islamic Conspiracy of Imran Khand hoves into view (£300,000 worth of electoral law evasion) alongside Lord Ashcroft's Tory donations of nearly £3million over five years, dished out with an air of spend, spend, spend to Conservative candidates in marginal constituencies.
Call me old-fashioned, but the TUC bankrolling penniless, disenfranchised Labour MPs in 1897 seems to me entirely justified given that the playing field of the day belonged to Eton School - and offered a heavy slope in the ruling class's favour. In 1997 - and now in 2007 - the word I'd use is unacceptable. As for wealthy Tories getting help from the likes of Ashcroft, the only clean word that springs to mind is unpalateable.
There are a number of important issues here, and they should not be obscured by the unimaginative tabloid sub-editor's obsession with 'sleaze'. For the real problem - unelected influence - goes to the very core of our libertarian democratic system.
First and foremost, there are certain times when - via a mixture of big money, vote concentration and time aperture - relatively small interest groups can dominate British politics. Usually, such influence is to the detriment of the majority's needs. During the last four decades, we have seen this in relation to the Liberal Party (when Heath tried to stave off a Labour Government) the TUC (when undemocratic block-voting could have undermined Parliament's sovereignty) the media (when Murdoch power threatened to give him two million votes to everyone else's one) dodgy foreign interests (when half-mad oil-barons almost bankrolled the Opposition's campaign in total) illiberal religious interests (when Islamic concentrations in Bradford and Leicester got perilously close to legalised privilege) and now 'secret' (aka bent) donations threatening to give power to already rich people at both local and national level.
In this context, I would offer the view that British electoral politics are no less corrupt today than they were under the Rotten Boroughs of eighteenth century England.
Second, 'unelected' must surely now be applied as a term (by all rational observers) to many of our sitting MPs, in that such 'elected' representatives are - in over 250 cases in the current House of Commons - there thanks to a minority level of support in their constituencies. The single transferable vote (STV) system is one of the keys to truly devolving responsibility and democracy in our culture. This and this alone can break the stranglehold of the Big Two parties, neither of whom represent electors in the meaningful sense of that verb any more. Make 'first past the post' the system of choice, and you immediately open the influence door directly to anyone who is rich and can count.
Third, like it or not, Britain's new mega-rich have found ever-more insidious ways (underwriting City Colleges being the latest) of getting the Establishment's ear. And the Establishment's ear - be it New Labour or Conservative - is elephantine in proportion, but utterly lacking in shrewd discernment in relation to the schmooze it is hearing. As the CBI's more wealthy members (and the TUC's bigger battalions) have demonstrated in the past, politicians like power - but they recognise that under the current system it takes money - ' in large amounts' as Ron Moody's Fagin opined - to achieve it and protect it.
Penultimately (but perhaps most important) the 'lost deposit' system - quite genuinely imposed to stop the lunatic vote getting any representation - is retained today as an utterly cynical means by which grass-roots concerns can be denied access to the political process. To me, 'disenfranchised' is simply the arse-side of a coin called 'unelected'.
Finally, in a bizarre and almost obscene rebuttal of its origins, New Labour's soi-disant 'reform' of the upper chamber has produced nothing more than a latter-day Etats-Generals - the wealthy and aristocratic 'parlement' sop given out to the democratic dupes in the years before France's 1789 revolution. Scroll down the list of the new life-peers 'enobled' by Blair and his seedy apparatchiks, and you will see only drones ever-prepared to do the Government's bidding - regardless of either constitutional or national interest.
The solution to this cess-pit of unearned influence is extremely straightforward: the banning forthwith of all donations to political parties, and the creation - however bitter the taste may be to most of us - of a tax-funded pot available to all realistic political groupings for the furtherance of their aims.
There are two major objections to this. The first is once again the 'keep out the loonies' barrier of maintaining a high cost of entry. My answer to this is that if only money is keeping out the loonies, then we are in a parlous state indeed. The second revolves around the 'bottomless pit' fear: that everyone and his mother will want to stand for Parliament and thus make a mockery of the electoral process. Again, I think only a modicum of imagination is required to make something practical of my term 'realistic political groupings' in the above paragraph. A research study of 8,000 voters (ruling out all those parties obtaining less than, say, 7% of voting intentions) would have a margin of error at almost zero, and cost very little in the greater scheme of things.
An additional way to avoid the bottomless pit, of course, would be to say up front that the pit is finite: there are £20 million in the fund, and that's yer lot. Make of it what you will, guys - but each of you will have to make do on what's available.
How would it be apportioned? Well, most definitely not on level of support. Let us say for example that five Parties passed the research 'Primary' - Tories, Labour, Libdems, Greens, BNP - and a new lot called The Clean Reform Party. Then quite simply they would be given 20% each and told to get on with it. Each would have equal (but very limited) access to Political Broadcast airtime. And all would be banned from undertaking 'paid-for' advertising beyond leaflets clearly and only setting out the policies they advocated.
None of these ideas are pie in a cloud-cuckoo sky. They would instantly remove massive wealth and unelected influence from any role in our Parliamentary system. No, the reason they won't be enacted is because they would destroy - in the only positive sense of that verb - the stranglehold dinosaur Parties have on our system of government.
In the US, the log-cabin to White House story is almost impossible today - simply because for nearly a century, both major Parties have been unassailable institutions based upon the patronage of massive fame and wealth. This ghastly system has produced (among others) Warren Harding, Richard Nixon and George W. Bush. If the same fate is not to befall our democracy - in most senses, the cradle of libertarian democracy - then we must find a way to put pressure for change upon those running what's left of the United Kingdom into the ground.
(13.12.07)
__________________________________________________
Civilisation may end with a whimper, but its decline begins with a sneer
As I was watching a 'Best Ever' movie compilation on television the other night, something clunked into place inside the infernal machine that is my thinking system. It wasn't something I particularly wanted in that place, clunked or otherwise. But there it has remained, and I can't for the life of me get rid of it.
The film in question was Monty Python's Life of Brian, and the blasphemy case Mary Whitehouse and others tried to bring against it. The film itself looked as funny as ever, and as an added bonus there was the hilarious TV debate between Muggeridge and a gay bishop on the one hand, and Michael Palin plus Jon Cleese on the other. Not only did Cleese run languid intellectual rings round St Mugg, Palin uttered one of his best lines, telling the self-styled 'open-minded' Bishop that he was "so relieved" the old puff had brought his mind ready-opened.
It was all a jolly jape, but the sequence left me with an uneasy feeling that has been nagging at me on and off for a couple of years now. I think I'm finally ready to put into words what the unease consists of, but for various reasons I do so with trepidation. You see, it's all very well for mega-bright University students to argue cogently about why Brian was harmless, but for some of the thicker folks wondering what to think about Christianity thirty years ago, I'm not sure it was harmless at all.
Towards the end of his life, I happened to work with Alf Garnett's inventor Johnny Speight. His creation Til Death do us Part represents a similar case to that of the Pythons biblical epic, in that while all we frightfully erudite intellectuals spotted immediately that Alf was an appalling bigot, lots of dockers all over the country thought him a good ol' boy setting an example to all of us. Speight had come to realise this, and people I know who've met Alf's player Warren Mitchell tell me he had the same equivocal feelings about the monster Garnett. It was yet another case of the elite being too clever by half.
From here on, this piece sinks ever deeper into the murky waters of potentially patronising reaction - but that won't hold me back any more. As 2008 dawns, I'm more certain than ever that taking the piss is fine for those who know its various levels, but not for the drongos who just fink it's a bit of a larf, like.
The late Peter Cook remains a hero of mine. A man who punctured pomposity more precisely than any other Twentieth Century Briton, he took a giant scimitar to the ruling class from 1960 onwards - whether that class consisted of Macmillans, Wilsons, Blairs, Union leaders, senior policemen, high court judges or soccer managers. His sketch Entirely a Matter for You (written and then peformed live on stage within five hours of the Thorpe judge's summing up) is a gem that everyone in awe of brainless authority should hear at least once in their lives.
But like so many of the satirists and Pythons and 'alternative' comics of the last four decades, Cook was a very bright and classically educated man. He knew why the Establishment was funny - but a huge proportion of his audience probably rarely got beyond the custard-pie element of laughing at Those in Charge. In the end, a generation of educationally mediocre people grew up thinking that all authority figures must be plonkers, because those clever blokes on the telly like John Mortimer, Clive Anderson, Ian Hislop, Eric Idle, Alan Bennett, John Bird and Rory Bremner just couldn't help seeing the funny side of them.
This is not as sweeping a generalisation as you might at first imagine. By the time you've ridiculed judges, politicians, teachers, vicars, fathers, housewife mums, coppers and royalty, there's little or nothing left to look up to. This is fine if you were born into a position on the class system where you're more likely to look down than up. But for those at the bottom (being advised on a daily basis in school that odd behaviour and giggling at PC Plod is fine) the experience is both disorientating, and likely to breed an attitude of contempt. I'm not sure that Essex Woman's contempt for Prince Philip and brainless adoration of Princess Diana is much of an improvement on cap-doffing and knowing one's place.
Of course, the obvious defence offered by those who have unpicked the culture over the last half-century is that if the Establishment behaves in a crass and hypocritical manner, then it deserves every brickbat thrown in its direction. I back this view entirely, but would nevertheless like to know what exactly is going to replace the old system. Certainly, nobody of sound mind can imagine that delusional pc apparatchiks, la-la land politicians, greedy commercial chieftains, social workers, feckless Underclass males and foul-mouthed stand-ups are the ideal raw material for a stable, law-abiding society where people look out for each other.
The easiest charge to lay at my door on the basis of this piece is that of young Leftie become aging curmudgeon along the heavily-trodden trail of Kingsley Amis, and all those other Angry Young Men who became Grumpy Old Men. This seems to me fair game, but doesn't answer the fundamental concern: given most human pack members need to sign up for what the Alphas think is best for everyone (or face anarchic chaos and the encroachment of rival packs) who and where are the Alphas today? And if and when they emerge, what good will be served by tabloid journalists hounding them into forced retirement?
Unquestioning obedience is a terrible idea. But relentlessly negative mickey-taking is almost as bad. Perhaps there is a new humorous form floating in the ether somewhere, via which better ways of running Britain can be made to tickle ribs rather than poke chests: I don't know, and to be honest I doubt it. Either way, knocking the house down is a bad idea if the only alternative is a pigsty.
(7.1.08)
________________________________________________________________________
Could Hillary still be the main event in America's last-chance saloon?
When notbornyesterday called Barack Obama as the likely Democrat winner in Iowa last year, it did so with a sense of sadness. The editorial view remains that Hillary Clinton would make a better President, and engage in genuine reform with the minimum of rhetoric.
I felt (and still feel) that an experienced fixer with real inside experience of the White House and Congress is precisely what the USA needs at the moment. For me, there is a lesson to be learned from the Kennedy/Johnson ticket in 1960: while JFK gave Americans a vision, he was a novice when it came to Congress in general and getting liberal laws passed in particular. It was typical of his successor LBJ that he knew precisely how to exploit the Congressional sympathy vote following Kennedy's assassination. In the first few months of 1964, for example, Johnson pushed through more integrational and welfare legislation than Bobby and Jack had managed in the previous three years.
Of course, the likelihood of an eventual Obama/Clinton ticket in 2008 is distant bordering on surreal: I cannot imagine why Democrat bosses would ever go with a ticket on which rode a black man and a left-liberal woman.
What makes 'real issue' politics so fascinating to sad folks like me is that - probably more so in America than anywhere else - people really will get off their butts and vote to stop something. Thus Hillary Clinton's victory in New Hampshire (where the 40+ female turn out was truly amazing) did, I suspect, reflect the feelings of middle-aged women who are tired of talk and hungry for walk. The female gender has always been more practical and pragmatic than the male, and nowhere was this more clearly evidenced than in the Comeback State two days ago. They clearly see Clinton as a walker, and Obama as a talker.
Once again, the media are obsessed with 'why oh why were the polls wrong?' when taking off the pc blindfold would reveal the truth instantly: nobody likes admitting they ain't gonna vote for the black guy. Faced with socially correct mania, people lie to market researchers.
What the bosses in Denver's smoke-free Democratic Convention rooms will be asking themselves six months from now is, how many US States are like New Hampshire? Obama remains the clear leader among digruntled Republican voters. While John McCain seems to be not so much forging ahead as foraging in the issues, we must all remember that this is a man who has been Jon Stewart's punch-bag joke guest on The Daily Show for some years now: Reagan and Schwarzenegger notwithstanding, do Americans - in their current mood - really want an affable loser in the Oval Office. The sheer weight of media attention on the challengers strikes me as making this the most difficult task in history for a GOP candidate.
As I said last November, most grown-up American voters want change. What New Hampshire women have said is that they want deliverable change - and Hillary is their woman.
I still think Obama will get the nomination, chiefly because (a) he is rock-solid among young voters of both parties (b) enough older Republicans would rather have him than McCain, and (c) in the redneck States, Hillary Clinton is one small diagnosis up from cancer. This last point may well hold the key to both nomination and election: while Clinton polarises, Barack Obama has the 'let's hear it for a fresh start' New Frontierism that gets people excited.
But I sincerely hope I'm wrong: for Hillary Clinton really would change America - and in a way that would enable it to face an uncertain future without becoming illiberal.
(11.1.08)
___________________________________________________________________________
(Format changed to 'Sage &Onions')

SAGE & ONIONS
Financial meltdown will always fry the economy
Although the Dow rallied as things got properly under way yesterday, two-thirds of shares lost value during trading. Things are getting pretty desperate when the Dow responds positively to JP Morgan buying a defunct major-league bank for 6% of its value.
In London, the loss was just short of 4% - and over three quarters of all stocks plunged. So far today (Tuesday 18th March) it's pulled back about half the loss - probably because New York rallied, and the Bank of England (inexplicably) chucked another five billion at the problem. Watch the stock market monitors going back to October last year, and it is obvious that the Bear market is gradually taking a stronger hold.
The much-predicted demise of Bear Sterns has made a reality of what must haunt Brown and Darling: the spectre of more Northern Rocks. Lending insurers made it clear over the weekend that they don't fancy the outlook for either Alliance & Leicester or Royal Bank of Scotland. The high-paying Icelandic banks were singled out as particularly high risks; in fact, my wife spent all Monday shouting at the Icesaver Call Centre to give us our money back - or else.
Things have gone beyond credit-crunch blips and silly business models now. Sooner rather than later, our government needs to stop making an artificial distinction between the financial and the economic, and accept that the electorate is not entirely stupid. One specific example close to my heart will serve to make the point.
The US financial institution AIG sponsors Manchester United. The bank is high up there among the names being bandied around as 'unsafe' - rather like Bear Sterns was a fortnight ago. The American owners of the soccer club borrowed heavily from similar banks to finance the deal....and then lumbered MUFC with the debt once they had bought the company back from the prying eyes of the Stock Exchange. Nice work if you can get it - but if US banks were to foreclose on this, Britain's most famous club brand (or AIG go belly up and thus be unable to continue ploughing huge sums into the cost of transfer fees) the current Premiership champions could soon find themselves virtually penniless.
Not Born Yesterday has been saying for five years that the Premiership is built upon a sandy Australian beach of holiday-Sky euphoria, but we did not foresee disaster coming from this direction. We did correctly identify United's owners as a bunch of carpet-bagging scheisters, but even they might go under at some point during the cataclysm which seems to be almost upon us.
Each generation seems to have to learn that every bubble must burst (for example, £120,000 a week for kicking a bit of leather around) and every loan be repaid. If an insane Zeitgeist persuades soccer drongoes that they deserve this elevated status (and borrowers that they are wealthy when they quite clearly aren't) it is an even more insane business model which suggests that these fantasies should be fed by applying no clamps on salaries - and no meaningful credit scores whatsoever on loans. Egomania and default are the inevitable end-results - and they will not go away because a greedy agent demands more, or some financial baboon invents Credit Default Swops.
But what makes this generation's arrogance unique is what I call the Titanic syndrome: that withholding a leak within self-contained bulwarks can somehow stop the ship from sinking. Icebergs do not recognise engineers' plans; rips do not respect bulwark barriers. There is no such thing as a financial crisis with no effect on economic growth. There is no such thing as a credit crunch which leaves homeowners and unsecured borrowers unscathed.
As usual, the media commentators restrict themselves to specialist opinion. I've no idea whether they do this because sub-eds strike out anything more broadly intelligent, or they fear the effects of speaking frankly, or they just aren't bright enough to grasp what's going on. What I do remain sure about is that what we are seeing is ultimately nothing more than history's catalysts ushering in an entirely new era of financial and economic thought.
Shakespearean tragedy
A senior Wall Street source told the Sunday Times at the weekend that 'we are in only the first act of a five-act Shakespearian tragedy.' |
A layman's view
No less an institution than Lehman Brothers has been targeted as the possible next victim of US financial turbulence. Lehman Brothers going down the tubes would be the equivalent of Sainsbury being insolvent in the UK |
The Swiss Family Job's comfort
Credit-Suisse commented that "In our view we are going to carry on lurching from one crisis to another. Anyone who sees this as a short-term blip is either mad or blind or both".
The London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) is applied to 60% of lending between banks in the UK. Its current interest rate position at 5.93% does not exactly display confidence in the ability of financial filks to settle their debts. |
Economic research shows....
The US National Bureau of Economic Research has predicted that the country's recession will be "substantially worse than anything we have known snce World War Two". In the UK, Ernst & Young delpored the fact that in Britain, "both the internal budget and overseas trade account are in the red. This does not marry well with the Chancellor's view that the UK is better equipped than most to withstand the world recession".
Citigroup concurred, adding "high personal debt and the low savings ratio suggest the UK's growth-fall will be the sharpest in the G7". |
An in-depth view
RIA Capital Markets told the media last Saturday afternoon that "the debate has passed on from being if there will be a major US recession to how profound it will be". |
The insurers' policy
Debt ratings sit at dangerously high risk levels for Lehman, AIG, Alliance & Leicester, Bradford & Bingley and Royal Bank of Scotland. |
(18.3.08)
Time for thinking outside the Frame
The sign of a healthy culture is one where there is genuine confidence in the strategy being followed, and genuine interest in the views of dissenters.
I'm fairly sure that this situation has never pertained in my lifetime. During the 1950s, stultifying rules of conformity hid the reality of a nation determined to hang on to what Imperial certainties were left. In the 1960s, dissent hid its essentially immature nature behind slogans of Socialist certainty. From 1974 until 1990, the New Left's ugly side was first opposed and then crushed by the equally unpleasant face of a Fundamentalist Right.
From Major to today, people tell us, there has been nothing in the way of belief - merely panics, tactics and cynical spin. But I'm not sure I accept that standard view any more: I think this is a fair description of what the political Establishment has been about a lot of the time, but there are two other important features missing from the analysis.
The first of these is an unparalleled level of philosophical confusion among those outside the ruling class. They (we) may not describe the syndrome in those terms - people might say things like 'everything's changing so fast', 'society is so complex now' and 'you can't trust any of them' - but what I suspect they mean is 'I don't know who stands for what any more, and I don't know whether to believe them'. For me, that's philosophical confusion, however unconscious.
The second is a controlling tendency among the Establishment. With no confidence in their ability to control events - and no credo in which they have any real confidence - our rulers (I'd call them leaders, but they don't lead) seek to control those areas into which debate might wander. Nothing else could explain the emergence of a contradictory dictum like political correctness in a supposedly democratic libertarian society. The essential intent behind it is what the American intellectual classes these days dub 'framing'.
Framing is the art of pushing your debating opponent into a corner where he or she does not belong. The term itself borders on genius, using as it does the double entendre of false witness, and coralling an alternative belief system intoa captive space. Joe McCarthy forced everyone who opposed him into the frame of 'Commie'. Baroness Thatcher did the same with her use of the term 'wet'. And the gargoyles around Bush have achieved it using 'soft on terrorism' as the frame.
In any culture, framing is both dishonest and dangerous. But in a situation where thinkers are already frustrated by their own uncertainty (and disturbed at the lack of real control over events by those to whom they pay taxes) it is asking for serious trouble. Under such circumstances, framing is nothing more than the crushing of dissent with spin-tanks.
Millions of people in Britain today have no idea where to put themselves on a politico-economic spectrum, and no allegiance to any one Party - or indeed any Party at all. When thinking about such anxious uncertainty is met with derision and insult, it breeds alienation. (To offer one important contemporary example, I am getting tired of my perfectly well-evidenced view that bourse capitalism is in need of fresh thinking and radical reform being 'framed' as the opinion of a grumpy old Leftie tree-hugger.)
Mainstream political parties talk a good game about being 'representative', but they do not represent - they do not even reflect organic social trends any more. They merely have Whips, and - hiding behind these foul blackmailers - an Executive keen to present, not represent. All-women and All-black lists do not an in-touch Party make: they are merely the tokenist window-dressing of opportunists. Down that road lies mediocrity of thought unconnected to social need. At the end of that road lies 78% of all Britons implacably opposed to further immigration, and an Establishment still thinking in the racial overtones of thirty years ago.
The older I get, the less I want to be framed, and the more I become tired of an increasingly authoritarian orthodoxy. You always know when there's an authoritarian Prime Minister, because he finds it necessary to tell us he is keen to listen. And you always know when there's an orthodoxy, because it becomes necessary to give Thinking outside the Box a name. Brown does not do listening, and the political elite today does not do thinking anywhere near the confines of the box: these real signs of an open mind are replaced by policy reviews and initiatives and Tsars and crackdowns and visions. But the result - the goal - is zero incursion upon What They Want to Do.
The unknowing mission of politicians in 2008 is to retain power at all costs, and frame anyone who gets in their way. It's why they look like catatonic rabbits, frozen by the headlights, when asked to actually do something substantively relevant to a period beyond next year. It's why they will spend 13% of the UK tax budget to save an empty Geordie Bank. It's why they will come within weeks of agreeing to a law allowing one religious group complete freedom from criticism. It's why they will get into bed with gun-toting Texans keen on a revenge that involves destabilisation of the Middle East.*
The mission of central bankers and industrial captains today is to preserve a bourse-driven system that perceptive observers feel increasingly certain is flawed. It's why they lash out with extreme framing whenever anyone of influence suggests there might be other people in the world beyond shareholders, and other domiciles in the world beyond offices. It's why they guffaw when respectable magazines point out that merger and acquisition are usually more about Chairman ego than shareholder value. It's why they chuck taxpayers' money at the problem of idiotic, target-driven lending policies, and give this suicidal business practice the sort of name suggestive of an accident - 'sub-prime credit crunch'.
Ours is a sick culture. There is no confidence in the strategy - too often, no interest - and an almost manic fear of alternative ideas. In such a culture, those in charge (scared of the fresh, the new, the past and the future) will only ever extol the virtues of banal analysis, and promote the grey technocrat. There will be no end to this until we admit genuine reformers to this country's political Uberbau. With his promise to ally himself only with parties who will reform our democratic procedures, the inexperienced but determined Nick Clegg offers a flickering candle of hope. If and when it is snuffed out, even braver souls will be called upon to light a new, more brilliant torch.
* The best analysis of this decision I have so far read is that of Steve Richards in The Independent of 27th March 2008
(25.3.08)
AS DISTURBING EVENTS UNFOLD IN TIBET, IRAQ, RUSSIA AND AFRICA, WE ASK: WHOSE REALITY IS MOST ALTERED?
THE ALTERED REALITY CLUB ISN'T EXCLUSIVE
And so at last (for now) Al Fayed has put his legal crocodiles back on the leash. What three-quarters of us in Britain apparently think was a farce from start to finish ended with a Judge politely telling the foul-mouthed owner of Harrods that his son and Diana died as a result of drunk driving exacerbated by newshounds. Mr Edinburgh nowhere near scene, case closed.
But in the end, we all have our own reality. As Kelvin Mckenzie pointed out on Sky News earlier this week, the man in the Middle Eastern street will always believe the death was an Establishment plot to stop a Muslim ascending to the throne. To us this is a combination of paranoia alongside a weak grasp of royal genealogy, but that's not the point: we're not talking correct or mistaken here - we're into that creepy land where other cultures live.
I recently spent a couple of weeks in South Africa, and as there were free Pan African magazines available on the SAA flight, I grabbed a few to read. After a couple of hours of reading this tripe, I was horrified. Apart from the usual stuff about everything being Whitey's fault, there was a mainstream of consciousness that went on and on: the West's secret societies (including the WI and a literary group at Harvard), AIDS introduced into Black Africa by the CIA, Traditional African Medicine rubbished by a jealous West; all you need is a shower after sex to avoid AIDS - and if that's not handy, rub your bits with garlic; time for Bwana to apologise more grovellingly for slavery, why the West has trumped up charges against that nice Mr Mugabe.....I didn't sleep well during the rest of the flight.
Lunatic or not, I must stress that these were not fringe publications. The main one New African is the biggest seller on that continent, and the others were as much about business and current affairs as they were about la-la-land conspiracy theories. On arrival in Cape Town, I picked up the main broadsheet paper there to discover the drunken (and corrupt) Health Minister's plans to fast-track Traditional African Medicine into the RSA's hospitals - without the tedious formality of clinical trials. Clinical trials, she insisted, were all a Western plot to discredit Black achievements.
Over the last week, the controversy about torture and torches has rumbled on. It was again instructive to listen to interviews with ordinary Beijing residents, who almost to the last man said the whole ker-fuffle was nothing more than Western fang-woi jealousy of China's enormous economic success: Tibet, they insisted, had always been a Chinese territory, and always would be. The following day, Tibet's Governor Qiangba Puncog fixed the cameras with an icy stare to tell us all that any further disturbances in the province would be treated as Western interference. Mr Qiangba looks like the kind of chap who doesn't take holidays - or prisoners.
Now the obvious conclusion to draw from all this is that the Imperialist legacy is still there, gibbering away in a locked attic, just waiting to be set free so it can bite us. To some extent, we must accept and live with this. My own view (having travelled more now and plucked at some passing wisdom on the way) is that Empires - while appalling at the time for any indigenous person of an independent disposition - are usually a civilising force, and that with their retreat goes a lot of the civilisation with which they arrived. But the fact remains that from the Middle Ages onwards, Americans, Christians, Imperialists and other caucasian conquerors have been kicking the other guys around in a pretty casual manner, and this has not been forgotten by the recipients. (Much closer to home, Putin's Russia represents a similar, if more cynically sane, version of the same syndrome.)
We can laugh about this, we can get angry about this, and we can try to refute the charges. But none of that is going to have the slightest effect upon those who regard the western capitalist white man as fundamentally evil and (in many ways) inferior. The only thing likely to change our image among those of an altered reality is a change in our behaviour.
This change must be twofold: as Theodore Roosevelt advised, "Speak softly and carry a big stick". The first thing the West must be from now on is consistent. Both the Chinese and Arab cultures regard western Christians as fundamentally devious and weak. They in particular (or rather, their leaders) will have to recognise that a line in the sand is exactly that. In Middle Eastern terms, this means not deserting those Iraqis who have helped the West in its attempt to replace warring factions with some form of stability: the policy is doomed, but again - that's not the point. We have to be seen to have backbone. So the line in the sand must be Afghanistan, and a safe passage elsewhere for brave people in Baghdad.
Secondly, we need to replace the ignorant and licentious features of our culture with something altogether more admirable. Understanding Arabist ideas would be a major leap forward (starting in Washington) and also coming to grips with the fact that Arabian, Chinese, Russian and African cultures have never embraced libertarian democracy. They very probably never will - and ultimately, if they ever do, then it has to be their own idea. Shock and Awe is fun for the generals and the Chimp, but it's merely storing up more resentful victims as recuits for the Mad Folks.
In turn, we could clear out the media-fixated reptiles currently running the UK, the USA and the EU. We could make our democracies truly egalitarian and inclusive, as opposed to the hypocritical hot air they are at the moment. And above all, we could reject the muddled social liberalism of the last thirty years - replacing it not with illiberal laws (the current tactic) but a full citizenship for all that has to be earned: earned in the shape of educational diligence, compulsory 'social' service, familial loyalty - in fact, community contribution rather than Community Charge.
The aims would be simple: to reduce the power of wasteful central government, to further demonstrate the attractiveness of our true culture to those elsewehere, and to give us back some pride in what we're about. The last thing I mean by that is the sort of jingoistic hubris we saw after the 7/7 bombings. I envisage instead an inward-looking emphasis on personal responsibility for oneself and the community; and an outward-looking attitude that offers a preparedness to understand those with different ideas - as long as they stay on their own turf.
Of course, fat Establishment political parties and free-market economists won't be up for any of this: chiefly they're up themselves - as evidenced by Gordon Brown's risible decision to boycott the Olympic opening ceremony, and then pitch up all smiles for the closure of the Games. As with pretty much everything this column discusses, the answer seems to be the same over and over again: take the power away from multinational employers and centralised government, and give real responsibility back to communities where people work for decent organisations.
You can either see this as my tramline, or a culture going off the rails - the choice is yours. But yelling 'pipe dream' won't cut it as long as the alternative is a pipeline full of nightmares.
(10.4.08)
coming to our senses
We tend to talk about 'the five primary senses' when referring to our species - sight, hearing, smell, taste and touch - but in reality they are all one. Our brain merely interprets each energy type with which it interacts in a different way, but the principle mechanism is always exactly the same: physical stimulation.
When light waves touch the eye's retina, they agitate the rods and cones therein to produce what we regard as reality. It does this by separating the white light into colours and shades, and the lines of objects thus 'seen' into shapes, depths and perspectives.
Similarly, sound waves hitting the ear's tympanic membrane activate a vibration which is then amplified by the drum. Molecules of objects which have undergone chemical change are carried by airwaves, landing on minute, fibrous receptors in the nose. Solid and liquid substances do precisely the same when they hit the tongue's taste buds. And the skin's epidermis reacts to contact with hot and cold liquids, solids and gases - and the movement thereof.
All the real 'work', however, is being done by the brain. Both instinctive (heat) and memory banks (taste) are used to decide what the overall body's response should be to these collisions. When light hits an eyelid, this too helps stimulate emergence from sleep (although the overriding decision as to wakefulness is taken elsewhere), and when female skin makes contact with that of the opposite sex, a powerful instinct (pro or anti depending on other sense organs) is instantly activated.
But really, there is only one sense - touch. Different energy types touch different receptors, and these respond in the way they have evolved to do. There may be many sensations, but touch is the only 'sense'. All experience that is real for us comes from one form or another of physical contact.
Four thoughts may be worth taking away from this observation.
First, the long-sought 'sixth' sense is really the second sense. Further, there may be a third, fourth and myriad others not dependent on physical stimulation. Perhaps 'emotion' is a second sense....although more likely, this too is the result of electrical energy sparking from one cerebral synapsis to another.
Second, the most important thing separating Man from other species (we can be almost certain) is our species' tendency for the vast majority of 'real' time to subjugate sensory perception to the somewhat capricious will of the Mind. We are indeed the sapiens suggested by our name - and we do it far too much. The Mind, on the whole, deals with past and future: but the senses always remain in Now.
Third, physics showed us many decades ago that there are myriad other energy forms to which we ( ie, Homo sapiens) are not sensitive. Perhaps the most important of these is electro-magnetic energy which, it has now been proved, connects every substance in the Universe: we can't see, taste, smell, hear or touch it, but it is there. Everything is connected - and 'travel' along this network (should it be possible) is not held back by e = mc2. Einstein's electrons responding instantaneously to stimulation millions of light years apart suggested this; and in 1985, the French Aspect experiments proved it. In short, 'time' can be ignored in the electro-magnetic realm....when you know how.
Fourth, this makes extra sensory perception (esp) perfectly possible - viz, an instantly communicated response between two living beings separated by hundreds of miles. No friction is involved, and thus e = mc2 can be ignored. (Much of the field-test evidence for esp is, if not always convincing, then certainly striking.)
Religious thought - as handed down by 'genuine' prophets - has arrived at these extrapolations intuitively. The problem is that most of the essentially human egos who carried on their work have perverted the ideas, but more importantly made a hopeless mess of explaining them. In my view, the one exception to this is Buddhism - chiefly because there is no Deity involved whose name can thus be used in vain to suppress alternative prophets, commit genocide, torture believers and so forth. Buddhists, on the whole, are good at sticking to the plot.
There are several key tenets of Buddhism which leap from the page in the light of this melange of science and intuition. Spend part of each day observing your senses and staying in Now. Physical distance, separation, and Time are all illusions. The Answer lies within. And Eternity is a place with no Time - not a Heaven that lasts forever.
E= mc2 is essentially the formula invented (by something - who knows what?) which ensures all physical things are trapped (by the unbeatable speed of light) in this physical Universe we inhabit. If evolution has any purpose, then I suspect it is eventually the perfection of a species capable of realising that its destiny is to escape the Whether Man as a whole can evolve, investigate, reason and make the necessary creative leap to such an understanding is impossible to judge. But right now, the signs aren't that propitious.
(18.4.08)
New Labour's desertion of the poor offers an opportunity for other Parties
1. The reality of British poverty
The dust having settled on the Government backbenchers' rather second-rate rebellion this week, I would imagine most observers will see the event as nothing more than nervous MPs in poorer areas worrying about their chances of electoral survival. There must be a strong element of that: for one thing, we didn't see this kind of rebellion when Tony Blair was equally indifferent to wealth disparities during the Good Times.Only now - when canvassers in the local elections suddenly start to see narrowing majorities wiped out by the abolition of the 10% tax rate - do the Field Guns get drawn up outside the Brown Redoubt.
But this shouldn't be taken to mean that the rebellion was based on falsehoods. I was interested to read Steve Richards in The Independent of 22nd April saying that the alleviation of poverty was the reason why the Prime Minister came into politics - that this is his 'home ground', upon which he feels more at ease. My interest stemmed from having done some research earlier in the week to try and botttom out the nature and extent of wealth disparity in the UK. Because if this represents the caring side of Brown, then I'd worry very much about the things he doesn't care about.
'Lifting people out of poverty' is one of Gordon's favourite phrases. When under fire (as he was yet again at PMQs this week) he falls back on the familiar statistics: over a million children taken out of poverty, 600,000 adults lifted to safety - and so on and so on. But what we never hear about is the overall numbers in the poverty trap, and what their share of our wonderfully performing 'best in the G7' economy is. The figures go beyond revealing: they are shocking.
Thirty years ago when Sunny Jim wondered what crisis there might be in Britain, 50% of the population owned 12% of the wealth. During the final Act of the Major government's meltdown, and after nearly two decades of Tory free markets, the poorest 50% of the country owned 6% of the wealth. By 2002 this had shrunk to 2%. Today it is 1%.
The reason why (I suspect) you've never seen that 1% figure before is that it's not the one normally used - it excludes any wealth in property. When one adds in home ownership as part of the National Wealth, the bottom 50% actually have 7% of the wealth, lucky people. Mind you, this too has halved under New Labour. The reason I think the property exclusion figure far more realistic is first, house-price inflation has ripped ahead in the last decade: it emphatically does not represent anything 'fairer' done by society or government to make these people better off. And second, one can't eat or spend bricks - we all need somewhere to live...even these forgotten souls. (What these people do of course is borrow against the property in order to keep their heads above water...from which come sub-prime lending crises and people facing foreclosure with nowhere to go.)
Statistically, a bit of juggling with the figures (something of a New Labour art-form) would quite easily 'lift out' 1.6 million people from the poverty trap. But I'm not going to accuse the Government of that, because it simply isn't necessary to make the appalling case against it - a case of guile,hypocrisy and obfuscation that has hidden the real nature of wealth disparity in 2008 Britain.
The generally accepted definition of poverty in the UK is 'anyone living on less than 60% of the national wage'. It's not exact, of course: comfortably retired people with no debt often do this,but have access to liquid capital if they need it. What one can say, however, is that 50% of citizens sharing out 1% of the non-property wealth makes it likely that they're struggling at least part of the time.
In answer to a Parliamentary question in October 2007, the ONS released data showing that 1.3% of all jobs are below the minimum wage level. The Government doesn't know how many people work in the Black economic sector for cash, and doesn't know how many have 60% of the minimum income; yet somehow,it knows with miraculous ease that it's lifted 1.6 million people beyond that figure. Er...how?
Other figures we do know: 18.6% of UK citizens are retired, and just uder 70% of these exist on the State Pension. Further, in round figures the minimum wage is £160 per week, and the State Pension is (at best) £90 a week. 60% of £160 is £96. Ergo sum, every State Pensioner is in the poverty trap.
Unemployment in the UK (as I write in 2008) stands at 1.6.million. 780,000 of these are claiming the Job Seeker's Allowance; this varies by age and circumstances, plus there are tax credits and Income Support - as one would expect, the system is ludicrously over-complicated. But basically, an average unemployed person would probably get circa £80 a week. Most would get less. Ergo sum, the vast majority of the Unemployed are in the poverty trap.
My apologies for the statistical bombardment, but at least in writing one can read it a few times and form an opinion. Gordon Brown (and most Government ministers) adopt the tactic of gabbling the numbers during PMQs: this is how they get away with bare-faced lies. Anyway, the 50% of folks sharing out 1% of the weatlh between them is 30 million people now. Because of population growth (about 11%) since 1997, direct comparisons are not easy. Equally, in 1997 these people shared six times more of the wealth available than they do now. And finally, the national wealth has grown dramatically - but as I noted earlier, the great majority of that is in property.
All this muddies the waters - which is exactly how the Government likes it. (If you find that a harsh and biased observation, remember that both the independent ONS and NAO (statistics and audits) have criticised the Government publicly on several occasions for unacceptable figures manipulation). The fact is, New Labour has serious form in this area. Luckily, a minimal amount of extrapolation is all that's required to nail the degree of dishonesty involved. The bottom line is that - while often referred to in writing as 'New' Labour - a more correct use of apostrophes would be New 'Labour'.
With the figures of State Pension benefit and numbers dependent on it, we have thirteen million UK citizens firmly in the poverty trap. With a further (and this is being generous to the Government) 500,000 unemployed in the same position, the very minimum trapped is 13.5 million. As young job-seekers (16-25) get a lower Unemployment benefit, the figure must be much higher - but there's no credible way to calculate it because (again) the Government doesn't know the number. It is known and accepted, for instance, that perhaps in excess of 10% of all the poor are single-parent women suffering from former-partner neglect.
Adjust for inflation and relative differences in real wealth, and then divide by seven to assess the resources of the bottom 50% in 2008, and even including only the pensioners, the unemployed, and allowing for only 10% of low wage earners to be at 60% legal minimum or less, it is almost statistically certain that compared to eleven years ago, there are five and a half million more people who are poverty-stricken in Great Britain. To be honest, I'm not really interested in people telling me 'ah but we've had immigration,and more baby-boomers are retired now', because Governments are primarily there to protect their citizens,and plan for such eventualities. I'm also uninterested in a sterile debate about whether this is unfair: in a modern First World State priding itself on compassion, it is unacceptable - fair or not.
Well, Tony Blair wanted a legacy, so there it is.
Here we see despicable Government dissembling revealed on a grand scale: 1.6 million people lifted out of the cess pit, and 5.5 million falling in. 'Did we forget to mention those joining the party as well as those leaving it? Dear me,what an oversight.'
2. Some socio-economic ramifications
All these numbers do is bring into sharp focus the claims made for many years now by people like the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, the Tomorrow Project for social inclusion and even some commercially available data on spending power (PDI).
Target Group Index (TGI), for instance, continues to show that even among the top (AB) social class, only a minority have started any kind of old age provision at age 35. By 2013 (says the Customs & Revenue) another seven million State pensioner-dependent people will have pitched up at the Post Office for their weekly pittance. By then of course there might not be any Post Offices left: as Unison has pointed out, the poorer and older members of society are three times more likely to suffer from closures compared to the better off.
The Rowntree Foundation has quite rightly fingered marital break-up (and the pathetic failure of the CSA) as strong reasons for the growth of 30-50 year old women living in poverty. Child Poverty UK measured the UK level for same at 10% of all children. All the charities concerned in the field agree that the level is much higher than it was five years ago. Every time a child is born (says the Child Poverty Action Group) one in six families will fall into poverty as a result of it. Our CP rates are among the highest of developed nations. Dr Barnado's noted in 2007 that the number of additional children in poverty rose by 200,000 in 2006 alone.
These are the figures never bandied around by Government ministers in debates and interviews, but they entirely sup