Crystall ball not Ed Balls


The NBY track record

This page gets updated from time to time. It's not here to brag - rather, its aim is to show what can be achieved with a focus on common-sense and foresight, while turning a jaundiced eye to the self-appointed experts and hucksters.

If you've been a reader since before even the Dreamweaver format started, the predictions below should have been to your advantage. You must also be very old and tired by now.

1. Spotted Sarkozy as future President of France (May 2002)

2. Backed Cameron as future Tory leader (February 2005)

3. Called Cameron victory over David Davies (November 2005)

4. Predicted UK housing collapse (May 2006 onwards)

5. Called Lehman Bros as having 'a business plan unfitted for bad times'. (June 2006)*

6. Said gold price being artificially inflated and China had more gold than it was owning up to (November 2006 onwards)

7. Wrote first Harman piece predicting ambition and bigotry (Jan 2007)

8. Said stocks and shares massively overvalued. Told readers I was out of it and buying gold (February 2007)

9. Warned five times 2007-8 that credit card debt and mortgage multiples were wildly out of control.

10. Predicted that Brown would unravel and be a disaster as Prime Minister. (March 2007)

11. Ran special features on incompetent senior staff/loan-scoring at HBOS (June 2007)

12. Predicted Northern Rock as first casualty (Early September 2007)

13. Foresaw global banking collapse (August 2007, November 2007)

14. Predicted wholesale care system cuts and ultimate demise of 'free' NHS. (December 2007)

15. Said (October 2007) that FTSE would be at 3500 by end 2008. (It got there in January 2009)

16. Said Freddie Goodwin's RBS had paid far too much for ABNAmro (February 2008)

17. Predicted Government 2008 bailout overspend to within £1 billion. (March 2008)

18. Called Obama to get both nomination and Presidency - even though I'd rather have had Hillary. (April 2008)

19. Revealed level of Government hypocrisy about Aged Care system (May 2008)

20. Got rid of all my Sterling when it was at 1.34 Euros (October 2008) (Currently 1.096, 1.12.09)

21. Announced buying into gold (November 2008) at $827 an oz. (Currently $1194 an oz 1.12.09).

22. Wrote second piece about Harman's anti-libertarian instincts. (April 2009)

23. Broke silence on PM's state of health. (September 2009)

24. Revealed how Harman and Dromey allegedly using Union subsidies to buy home and build power-base. (October 2009)

25. Revealed Staffordshire care system still abusive and secret. (October 2009)

26. Predicted still far more UK systemic abuse to come out: showed how Harman & Balls had done nothing to rectify abuse problem since 2006 promise. (October 2009)

* This prediction was actually published first in the Summer 2006 edition of Market Leader

Do I have magical powers?

I wish. No, the twenty six good calls were made based on a judicious mixture of expert sources, government sources, political sources, expert advice (For which I thank Full Circle Investment in particular), bitter experience, common sense, market knowledge, reasearch and luck.

One also needs to remember that I called both the stock market and banking collapses too early; and that half a dozen predictions were woefully wrong. Most notable among these was a confident prediction in 2005 that the Labour Party would never be barking enough to let Gordon Brown get the leadership. And I did say last year that an FA Premiership Club would collapse. At least one will, but as yet I remain mistaken about that one.

And last but not least, I didn't see the Dubai mess coming at all; like most folks, I believed what the Arabs said in the prospectus. Silly me.

Let's see how we get on from here

i. Gold going to at least $1500 an oz.

ii. UK property prices will fall drastically again...perhaps by as much as 15%

iii. Recent UK Stock market gains to be wiped out by end of 2009

iv. At least one insurance group to collapse.

v. Gordon Brown will not make it to an election.

vi. Post-election, hung Parliament but with Libdems very badly squeezed.

vii. More care home revelations about Plymouth...going all the way to the top.

viii. UK export performance will remain distastrous, and the 'recovery' will be over by next March.

ix. More banking problems in EU, fall in value of Euro.

x. Some recovery in Sterling as election approaches.

xi. Man United will win neither Premiership nor Champions League.

xii. A major soccer club will collapse.

xiii. Lord Mandelson will face further questions about alleged impropriety by the end of 2010.

xiv. Zero interest rates to have no effect, and cause asset bubble.


The Editor, 1st December 2009


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